Blog Talk Radio Show January 23, 2012: Chief Economist Fannie Mae

2017-12-20T17:34:14+00:00 January 24th, 2012|Categories: BlogTalkRadio Podcasts|Tags: , , , , , , |

Our special guest on the Lykken-on-Lending blog talk radio show today was Doug Duncan, the Chief Economist for Fannie Mae.  Doug  provided his thoughts on the economy, housing, Europe, and inflation, but the most interesting comments had to do with his answer to a question asking how he would characterize what will happen in  2012.  Doug answered by directing the listeners to a Fannie Mae research paper entitled 2012 – Year of the Political Economy.  This paper can be found on the Fannie Mae web site at  Doug explained that  2012 will be very heavily effected by the number of regulations just added to the books, as well as the many new regulations to be issued in the months to come.  The consequence of the huge number of new regulations is UNCERTAINTY.  He estimates that uncertainty will cost the economy 1% in Gross Domestic Product or $500 to $750 billion in 2012, effecting both the consumer and businesses. Click PLAY to listen to the podcast of this week’s BlogTalkRadio/Lykken on Lending with Dave Lykken and MBSQuoteline's Joe Farr: Listen to internet radio with David Lykken on Blog Talk Radio MBSQuoteline supplies the essential market information necessary for effective decision making [...]

BlogTalkRadio Podcast – June 14, 2010

2017-12-20T17:34:16+00:00 June 17th, 2010|Categories: BlogTalkRadio Podcasts|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

This week on BlogTalkRadio/Lykken-on-Lending: What drives mortgage rates?  Inflation and uncertainty.  Inflation is not present right now and according to the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee members it is not expected to be much of a concern for the near future.  Uncertainty, though, is alive and well.  Continuation of the recent economic improvement in the US is considered anything but certain.  Global economic growth has been a question mark.  The ability of several European nations to satisfy their debt obligations is uncertain.  This uncertainty has resulted in tremendous volatility in the stock market, which has caused tremendous volatility in mortgage-backed securities prices. Daily, global headlines suggest to  investors its time to shift assets to more or less risky investments.  That is what happened last week.  After reaching the highest level of the year, mortgage-backed security prices were beat down on Thursday based on headlines from Australia, China, and Europe, all which suggested improving economic conditions.  Investors sold low risk bonds and bought higher risk stocks.  The Dow gained 270 points.  MBS prices lost 25/32nds.   This pattern has been in place now since April when the European debt crisis raised its ugly head.  Look for volatility in mortgage-backed security [...]

BlogTalkRadio Podcast – May 24, 2010

2017-12-20T17:34:18+00:00 May 25th, 2010|Categories: BlogTalkRadio Podcasts|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

Mortgage rates made a nice move lower last week.  In fact, they have moved lower each of the last four weeks, to the lowest level of the year.  Many of us thought mortgage rates would head higher after the Fed stopped buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at the end of March.  Mortgage rates did move higher just prior to and just after March 31st,   but new circumstances entered the market in April.   Uncertainty has pushed investors out of riskier assets like stocks (the Dow is well off its recent highs) and into less risky assets like government insured MBS.  Several things are contributing to this uncertainty.  The European debt crisis and a tightening monetary policy in China have made investors very uncertain about future economic growth in the US.   In addition, the passage by the Senate of a financial reform bill has many investors questioning how freely banks will make capital available to US businesses to finance their expansion.  This uncertainty combined with very low inflation rates have made MBS an attractive alternative. Dave Lykken hosted today’s show from the exhibit floor of the MBAs National Secondary Market and Expo.  He reported that the conference was well attended and the [...]

BlogTalkRadio Podcast – Apr 19, 2010

2017-12-20T17:34:18+00:00 April 22nd, 2010|Categories: BlogTalkRadio Podcasts|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

MBS prices are down 3/32nds this morning.  Leading Indicators were released at 10:00 a.m. et and were a little stronger than expected.  Last week was another good week for mortgage rates.  Mortgage rates fell about 10 basis points during the week.  The Fed Beige Book painted a pretty picture for mortgage rates, slow growth and low inflation.  CPI confirmed the low inflation part as it reported prices in March rose at a 1.1% annual rate.  Volatility continued during the week.  Volatility has persisted since the end of the MBS purchase program on March 31st.  As the Fed is no longer a consistent big buyer, the market is functioning more naturally and that includes reacting more significantly to economic announcements and changing sentiment. Mitch Kider, of Weiner Brodsky Sidman Kider PC, joined the show to discuss the result of a recent Department of Labor ruling which changes an interpretation of labor laws as it relates to loan originators (LOs) and overtime.  The new ruling overrides previous rulings that allowed LOs to be exempt from overtime as they were considered to be performing administrative duties.  Now their duties are not considered administrative and the labor laws says, if they do not meet [...]

BlogTalkRadio Podcast – Apr 12, 2010

2017-12-20T17:34:19+00:00 April 22nd, 2010|Categories: BlogTalkRadio Podcasts|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

MBS prices are up nicely this morning, up 9/32nds.  No economic data was released this morning.  The Dow is also up.  It is above 11,000 for the first time in 18 months. Last week was a great week for the mortgage market.  MBS prices improved about 24/32nds during the week.  Most of the improvement followed a very strong 10 yr Treasury auction.  Strong demand and foreign participation fueled a rally in Treasury prices, which spilled over to MBS prices.  Also kind to MBS prices during the week were the minutes from the 3/16 Fed meeting.  The minutes showed that the Fed was nearly unanimous in their belief that Fed funds rates need to stay very low for an extended time and that inflation was not a concern.   Next week will be full of significant economic announcements.  On Wednesday both CPI and Retail Sales for March will be released and on Thursday Industrial Production will be released. Glen Corso, Executive Director of the Community Mortgage Banking Project, joined the show to discuss further the need to voice concerns about the 5% risk retention provisions in the current Financial Reform bill before the Senate.  Glen described that passage of the bill with [...]

BlogTalkRadio Podcast – Mar 29, 2010

2017-12-20T17:34:19+00:00 April 22nd, 2010|Categories: BlogTalkRadio Podcasts|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

MBS prices were volatile last week and fell about half a point during the week.  Most of the push for MBS prices lower came from weak Treasury auctions.  On Wednesday the 5 Yr Treasury Note received lower than usual demand, especially from foreign investors, and the yield required from the bidders was higher than the previous trading range.  The weakness in the Treasury auction spilled over to the MBS market.  The economic data released during the week was mixed with Durable Orders better than expected and the housing data was a little weaker than expected. All of the focus in Congress now that Health Care has passed seems to be with the Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2010.  This proposed law will have sweeping changes for the mortgage industry, if passed.  It includes the creation of a new regulator for consumer protection, retention of 5% of the risk on loans originated and then sold, and increased HMDA reporting requirements, among other things.  This 1300 page bill seems to be on a fast track. Discussion continued on the risks and benefits of converting a mortgage company’s operations from a best efforts delivery of loans originated to a mandatory delivery.  The [...]