The latest economic data highlights the persistence of high inflation and a tight labor market, which has implications for June MBS (mortgage-backed securities).
Alongside a wide range of major economic news, another Fed rate hike created a volatile week for mortgage markets.
This week, mortgage-backed securities dropped as consumer spending data fell short. Meanwhile, the inflation data matched expectations.
This week, October 2022 home sales fell, marking the ninth straight month of declines, as mortgage rates remained unchanged.
In another extremely volatile week, the latest news saw mortgage rates hit 2007 highs as the UK passed new tax cuts.
Taking a look back at August 2022 mortgage rates, mortgage-backed securities continued to soar amongst stubbornly high inflation levels.
Although this week contained little new data, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates to their highest levels since 2011.
While this week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium failed to cause much reaction, mortgage rates ended the week a little higher. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speak did allude to greater inflation consequences. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Alludes to “Some Pain” In a highly anticipated speech from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Powell alluded to the inflation outlook. In his address, Powell mentioned that the consequences of not aggressively fighting inflation produce a worse scenario than the effects of tightening monetary policy. Overall, he said that tightening monetary policy includes "some pain" for households and businesses. Powell repeated that future decisions depend on incoming economic data. Despite that announcement, he chose not to include specific guidance. Investors remain divided about whether the Fed raises the federal funds rate by 50 or 75 basis points at the September 21st meeting. Core PCE Climbs but Falls Below Consensus Forecast As the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium pointed towards inflation, core PCE climbed slightly year-over-year. In July 2022, core PCE increased 4.6% from a year ago. Not only did this fall below the consensus forecast, core PCE declined from a peak of 5.3% in February. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, [...]
As the Federal Reserve remains aggressive against inflation, the new July CPI data showed a sharp decline.