As central banks around the world maintain an aggressive policy stance, mortgage rates achieved their highest levels in over 10 years.
While this week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium failed to cause much reaction, mortgage rates ended the week a little higher. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speak did allude to greater inflation consequences. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Alludes to “Some Pain” In a highly anticipated speech from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Powell alluded to the inflation outlook. In his address, Powell mentioned that the consequences of not aggressively fighting inflation produce a worse scenario than the effects of tightening monetary policy. Overall, he said that tightening monetary policy includes "some pain" for households and businesses. Powell repeated that future decisions depend on incoming economic data. Despite that announcement, he chose not to include specific guidance. Investors remain divided about whether the Fed raises the federal funds rate by 50 or 75 basis points at the September 21st meeting. Core PCE Climbs but Falls Below Consensus Forecast As the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium pointed towards inflation, core PCE climbed slightly year-over-year. In July 2022, core PCE increased 4.6% from a year ago. Not only did this fall below the consensus forecast, core PCE declined from a peak of 5.3% in February. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, [...]
After months of upward momentum, July 2022 mortgage markets finally reflected reduced inflationary pressures.
As the European Central Bank faces record-high inflation levels, this week’s biggest news marked the first ECB rate increase in 11 years.
In June 2021, the United States saw attractive mortgage rates alongside continually looming inflation. As a matter of fact, annual inflation rose to its highest level in June since August 2008.
Key economic reports indicate that strong job gains drove a surge in consumer confidence. Bond investors displayed satisfaction.
As the U.S. returns to "normalcy", analysts see strong inflation data while the economy reopens. Job openings hit record highs. The housing market continues to grow. More Americans are getting their COVID-19 vaccinations. And inflation shows renewed intrigue. But most importantly, investors observe how each of these components affect mortgage-backed securities. Analysts See Strong Inflation Data While the Economy Gains Jobs April's release of labor market and manufacturing data proved stronger than expected. While the stronger than expected return contributed to analysts seeing strong inflation data, mortgage rates barely changed. Employment Report The highly anticipated monthly employment report revealed very impressive results. In March 2021, the economy gained 916,000 jobs. Overall, this rose far above the consensus forecast of 625,000. In addition, analysts supplied added 156,000 jobs to prior month results. In particular, the hospitality and construction sectors displayed strength. This is especially interesting because both of these sectors suffered blowbacks during the pandemic. Average Hourly Earnings Average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, fell slightly from February. Thus, the result did not reach the consensus, but saw a modest increase. Compared to 2020, average hourly earnings jumped 4.2% higher than a year ago. However, average hourly earnings dropped [...]
In this past week’s labor market reporting, the economy realized impressive employment gains and manufacturing sector strength. As a result, both exceeded expectations. In spite of this positivity, mortgage rates ended the week with little change. Impressive Employment Gains Analysts finally learned the latest on Employment in the report released Friday, April 2nd, 2021. To the surprise of many, the data displayed impressive employment gains. Overall, the United States economy gained 916,000 jobs. This result is far above the consensus forecast of 625,000. In addition, the prior month showed revised results to the addition of 156,000 jobs. In particular, the hospitality and construction sectors exhibited strength. This is fantastic news given that both the hospitality and construction industries suffered at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Impressive Employment Gains Lead to Unemployment Rate Decline Because of the impressive employment gains, the unemployment rate saw a decline. Thus, the unemployment rate dropped from 6.2% to 6.0%. This result matched expectations. On the other hand, the economy expressed a decline in average hourly earnings. Generally, economists consider average hourly earnings to be an indicator of wage growth. The average hourly earnings fell slightly from February, below the consensus for a modest increase. [...]
Despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, recent data reflects an emerging housing market across the United States.