French Presidential Election

2017-12-20T17:34:11+00:00 April 20th, 2017|Categories: Uncategorized|Tags: , , , , , |

The first round of the French Presidential election will take place on Sunday. It is significant for global markets because of its potential implications for the future of the European Union (EU). The two candidates who receive the most votes on Sunday will proceed to the second round of voting on May 7, and the latest polls show that the top four candidates are very close. Two of these four (Le Pen and Melenchon) favor exiting the EU. The possibility that an anti-EU candidate could win has caused investors to shift to safer assets, which has helped mortgage rates in recent weeks. A strong showing by the anti-EU candidates would be good for mortgage rates, as investors likely will shift additional funds into safer assets. If they do poorly, it is expected that investors would shift back into riskier assets, which would be negative for rates.